DETROIT – A healthier economy and more new models should push U.S. auto sales above the 15 million mark this year, predicts an auto industry research firm.
The Polk research firm says auto sales should continue to lead the countrys economic recovery, rising nearly 7 percent over 2012 to 15.3 million new vehicle registrations.
Automakers release December and full-year sales for 2012 today. Analysts think sales reached 14.5 million last year, the strongest performance since 2007 – just before Americans felt the effect of the recession. Sales of more than 15 million are considered a sign of health for the auto industry and the economy, many analysts say.
Polk does not expect pre-recession sales levels of 17 million for several more years, Anthony Pratt, Polks forecasting director for the Americas, said Wednesday.
Polk expects 43 new models to be introduced this year, up 50 percent from last year. New models usually boost sales. The company also predicts a rebound in sales of large pickups and midsize cars.
But Polks optimistic forecast firm hinges on Washington reaching an agreement on spending cuts, which could happen later in the year. On New Years Day, Congress approved a compromise to avoid tax increases, part of what came to be known as the fiscal cliff.
Polk predicted a handful of other trends for 2013. Sales will grow for big pickup trucks, which are very profitable for automakers. Demand has been depressed for five years because of the weak economy but should get a lift in 2013 thanks to redesigned trucks from GM, Toyota and Ford, Polk said.
GM has a truck assembly plant in southwest Allen County.
Polk also said the midsize sedan segment will continue to lead the industry. Its now at 18.5 percent of the market, 2 percentage points larger than any other type of segment.
Polk joins many other analysts in predicting 2013 sales at or above 15 million. The consulting firm LMC Automotive, for instance, expects 2013 sales of around 15 million, up from 14.5 million in 2012.
Auto sales peaked at 17 million in 2005 but dropped to 10.4 million in 2009, the lowest level in more than three decades.